Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelInternazionale on top: Marcus Thuram to test the keeper, and Samuel Wiafe kept busy stopping them.
Internazionale v Genoa prediction
Our model gives Internazionale a 69% chance of winning this Serie A game. A Genoa win is 11% and a draw 19%. Our predicted score is Internazionale 2–0 Genoa, at 12%. Internazionale are expected to score 2.2 goals and Genoa 0.8, 3.0 between them. There is a 49% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 58%.
Internazionale come in with five wins, no draws and one defeat in their last six. Genoa have four wins, no draws and two defeats over the same run. We expect Internazionale to have 21.7 shots (7.1 on target) and Genoa 8.3 (2.7 on target), and corners at 7.3 to 2.5. That points to Internazionale doing more of the attacking.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Internazionale have won four, Genoa none, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Inter 2–0 Genoa, in Feb 2026. Of the players, Marcus Thuram (Internazionale) tops both our lists, with 3.7 shots and 1.3 on target expected if they start. Leo Østigård of Genoa is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick for this game is Internazionale or Draw, Samuel Wiafe 1+ Foul Committed and Marcus Thuram 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 47% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.11).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Internazionale · last 6
Genoa · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Internazionale to win is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Internazionale vs Genoa?
Bawler's model rates this match: Internazionale are favoured (69% win probability vs 11% for Genoa, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Internazionale vs Genoa?
Bawler's predicted score is Internazionale 2-0 Genoa: the most likely score if Internazionale win, which is the likeliest result (69%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.9%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Internazionale vs Genoa?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Internazionale 69%, the draw 19% and Genoa 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Internazionale vs Genoa?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Internazionale expecting 2.22 goals and Genoa 0.80.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Internazionale vs Genoa?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the Internazionale v Genoa line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Internazionale v Genoa?
Internazionale or Draw (89%), Samuel Wiafe 1+ Foul Committed (72%), Marcus Thuram 1+ Shot on Target (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 47% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.11). 18+, please gamble responsibly.