Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelInternazionale on top, and Marcus Thuram getting plenty of shots away.
Atalanta v Internazionale prediction
Our model makes Internazionale favourites for this Serie A game, giving them a 57% chance of winning. Atalanta are 20% and the draw is 22%. Our predicted score is Atalanta 1–2 Internazionale, the likeliest Internazionale win score (10%). We expect 3.2 goals in total: 1.2 for Atalanta and 2.1 for Internazionale. Both teams scoring is 60% and three or more goals is 62%.
On shots, our forecast is 12.8 for Atalanta and 17.7 for Internazionale, with 3.9 and 5.0 on target, and corners at 4.0 to 5.1. So we expect Internazionale to do more of the shooting. For cards, Hakan Çalhanoglu (Internazionale) has been booked once every 3 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Atalanta have won none, Internazionale four, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Inter 1–1 Atalanta, in Mar 2026. Atalanta come in with no wins, three draws and three defeats in their last six. Internazionale have five wins, no draws and one defeat over the same run. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Internazionale or Draw, Internazionale Over 13.5 Shots and Marcus Thuram 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 51% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 1.97.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Atalanta · last 6
Internazionale · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Internazionale or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Atalanta vs Internazionale?
Bawler's model rates this match: Internazionale are favoured (57% win probability vs 20% for Atalanta, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Internazionale?
Bawler's predicted score is Atalanta 1-2 Internazionale: the most likely score if Internazionale win, which is the likeliest result (57%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Atalanta vs Internazionale?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Atalanta 20%, the draw 22% and Internazionale 57%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Internazionale?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Atalanta expecting 1.16 goals and Internazionale 2.05.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Atalanta vs Internazionale?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.
When are the Atalanta v Internazionale line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Atalanta v Internazionale?
Internazionale or Draw (80%), Internazionale Over 13.5 Shots (78%), Marcus Thuram 2+ Shots (75%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.97). 18+, please gamble responsibly.