FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Heart of Midlothian 5–0 St MirrenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Heart of Midlothian to win at 60%. Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 60%, the draw at 24% and St Mirren at 16%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Heart of Midlothian win
60%
Result
Draw
24%
St Mirren win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.4 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Heart of Midlothian or draw
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.