FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
St Mirren 0–3 Dundee UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had St Mirren at 44%, draw at 26%, Dundee United at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was St Mirren to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mirren win
44%
Draw
26%
United win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.24
Total 2.81
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 74%, supported by St Mirren's 0.35 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.64 that favours an open contest."