FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FC NordsjællandMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Nordsjælland or draw at 70%. Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 30%, the draw at 25% and FC Nordsjælland at 45%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Heart of Midlothian win
30%
Draw
25%
Result
FC Nordsjælland win
45%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.7
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.