FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 18 October 2026
PEC Zwolle 4–1 Go Ahead EaglesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Go Ahead Eagles or draw at 66%. Bawler had PEC Zwolle at 34%, the draw at 25% and Go Ahead Eagles at 41%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
PEC Zwolle win
34%
Result
Draw
25%
Go Ahead Eagles win
41%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.