FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 23 October 2026
Go Ahead Eagles 3–2 TelstarMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Go Ahead Eagles or draw at 71%. Bawler had Go Ahead Eagles at 47%, the draw at 23% and Telstar at 30%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Go Ahead Eagles win
47%
Result
Draw
23%
Telstar win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.5
Total 3.5
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
Go Ahead Eagles or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 86% confidence, driven by Go Ahead Eagles' 0.45 xG advantage and combined shot quality totalling 3.49 expected goals."