Match prediction·PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal·Sunday 09 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
57.8% home28.9% draw13.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Gil VicentestepRio Ave
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Gil Vicente average 5.4 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Rio Ave average 3.3 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Gil Vicente to win
71%
Under 2.5 goals
55%
Rio Ave or draw
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Gil Vicente and Rio Ave — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Gil Vicente 58% · draw 29% · Rio Ave 13%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Gil Vicente 10 Rio Ave
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.