FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Gil Vicente 0–1 Académico de ViseuMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Gil Vicente at 46%, draw at 27%, Académico de Viseu at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Gil Vicente to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vicente win
46%
Draw
27%
Viseu win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.10
Total 2.62
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 74% probability, driven by Gil Vicente's 0.41 expected-goals advantage and combined attacking output of 2.62 xG."