Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelGil Vicente on top, with Walace França our likeliest to test the keeper.
Gil Vicente v Estoril prediction
Our model makes Gil Vicente favourites for this Liga Portugal game, giving them a 56% chance of winning. Estoril are 19% and the draw is 24%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Gil Vicente 1–0 Estoril, the most likely Gil Vicente win (11%). Our expected goals are 1.8 for Gil Vicente and 1.0 for Estoril, 2.8 in all. Both teams scoring is 52% and three or more goals is 52%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Gil Vicente and Estoril have two wins each, with one draw. When they last met, it finished Estoril 3–1 Gil Vicente, in Feb 2026. On shots, our forecast is 17.0 for Gil Vicente and 10.4 for Estoril, with 5.6 and 2.9 on target, and corners at 5.7 to 3.2. So we expect Gil Vicente to do more of the shooting.
On form, Gil Vicente have three wins, one draw and two defeats from their last six games, and Estoril have one win, no draws and five defeats. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Gil Vicente or Draw, Gil Vicente Over 12.5 Shots and Walace França 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 46% on our numbers, so the fair price is 6/5, or 2.16.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Gil Vicente · last 6
Estoril · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Gil Vicente or draw is 81% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Liga Portugal table →Common questions
Who will win Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Bawler's model rates this match: Gil Vicente are favoured (56% win probability vs 19% for Estoril, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Bawler's predicted score is Gil Vicente 1-0 Estoril: the most likely score if Gil Vicente win, which is the likeliest result (56%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.2%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Gil Vicente 56%, the draw 24% and Estoril 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Gil Vicente expecting 1.80 goals and Estoril 0.96.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 52%.
When are the Gil Vicente v Estoril line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Gil Vicente v Estoril?
Gil Vicente or Draw (81%), Gil Vicente Over 12.5 Shots (80%), Walace França 1+ Shot on Target (63%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 46% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.16). 18+, please gamble responsibly.