What we expect
In plain English
Finland are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Belarus, and Belarus have not beaten them in their last three meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Finland or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Finland vs Belarus?
Bawler's model rates this match: Finland are favoured (51% win probability vs 26% for Belarus, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Finland vs Belarus?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Finland 1-1 Belarus (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.34.
How does Bawler predict Finland vs Belarus?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Finland 51%, the draw 23% and Belarus 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Finland vs Belarus?
BTTS: Yes (64% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.98 and away expected goals 1.36.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Finland vs Belarus?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.34. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).