FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Finland 2–1 AlbaniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Finland
2–1
Finland win
Albania

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Finland or draw at 73%. Bawler had Finland at 44%, the draw at 29% and Albania at 27%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Finland win
44%
Result
Draw
29%
Albania win
27%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.0
Total 2.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Finland or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Finland's 0.36 expected-goals advantage and 44% win probability underpin the Finland or draw forecast at 73%, suggesting the hosts are likeliest to avoid defeat on home turf."

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