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Bawler / Albania vs Belarus / Recap
FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Albania 2–0 BelarusMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Albania
2–0
Albania win
Belarus
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Albania at 49%, draw at 26%, Belarus at 25%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Albania.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Albania win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Belarus win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.69 – 1.16
Total 2.84
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries 80% forecast confidence, driven by Albania's 0.64 expected-goal advantage and attacking intent at home against a Belarus side projected for just 1.18 xG."

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