FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Belarus 4–0 San MarinoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Belarus
4–0
Belarus win
San Marino

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Belarus to win at 95%. Bawler had Belarus at 95%, the draw at 4% and San Marino at 1%. The match finished 4–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Belarus win
95%
Result
Draw
4%
San Marino win
1%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.9 – 0.4
Total 4.3
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 4.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Belarus to win
Pre-match: 95%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Belarus' overwhelming 3.54 expected-goals advantage and 94% win probability make a home victory the model's clear call."

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