FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Belarus 1–0 FinlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Belarus
1–0
Belarus win
Finland

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Finland or draw at 73%. Bawler had Belarus at 27%, the draw at 27% and Finland at 46%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Belarus win
27%
Result
Draw
27%
Finland win
46%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.6
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Medium confidence
Finland or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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