Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFerencvaros on top, and Veljko Birmancevic getting plenty of shots away.
Ferencvaros v NK Celje prediction
Our model makes Ferencvaros clear favourites for this Europa League game, with a 70% chance of winning. NK Celje are given 11%, and the draw 19%. Our predicted score is Ferencvaros 2–0 NK Celje (12%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Our expected goals are 2.2 for Ferencvaros and 0.8 for NK Celje, 3.0 in all. Both teams scoring is only 48% and three or more goals is 58%.
On shots, our forecast is 23.0 for Ferencvaros and 8.3 for NK Celje, with 5.8 and 3.2 on target, and corners at 6.6 to 2.9. So we expect Ferencvaros to do more of the shooting. Veljko Birmancevic is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.4 shots and 0.9 on target for Ferencvaros, if they start.
Ferencvaros come in with six wins, no draws and no defeats in their last six. NK Celje have one win, three draws and two defeats over the same run. Bawler's pick for this game is Ferencvaros or Draw, Ferencvaros Over 18.5 Shots and Veljko Birmancevic 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 48% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.07).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Ferencvaros · last 6
NK Celje · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Ferencvaros to win is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Ferencvaros vs NK Celje?
Bawler's model rates this match: Ferencvaros are favoured (70% win probability vs 11% for NK Celje, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Ferencvaros vs NK Celje?
Bawler's predicted score is Ferencvaros 2-0 NK Celje: the most likely score if Ferencvaros win, which is the likeliest result (70%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.3%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Ferencvaros vs NK Celje?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Ferencvaros 70%, the draw 19% and NK Celje 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Ferencvaros vs NK Celje?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Ferencvaros expecting 2.23 goals and NK Celje 0.77.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Ferencvaros vs NK Celje?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the Ferencvaros v NK Celje line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Ferencvaros v NK Celje?
Ferencvaros or Draw (89%), Ferencvaros Over 18.5 Shots (76%), Veljko Birmancevic 2+ Shots (65%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.07). 18+, please gamble responsibly.