What we expect
Our forecast for this match. The tick on each bar is that side’s average over their last six.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Bayer Leverkusen should get at least a draw here. They have won six of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than FC Cologne. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Bayer Leverkusen or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
FC Cologne · last 6
Bayer Leverkusen · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bayer Leverkusen are favoured (54% win probability vs 23% for FC Cologne, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is FC Cologne 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Cologne 23%, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 54%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on FC Cologne expecting 1.27 goals and Bayer Leverkusen 2.02.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 64%.