Team stats
What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
Match odds
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Schalke 04 should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Dynamo Dresden, and they have won three of the last five between them. It should be tight: the model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Schalke 04 or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 60%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model rates this match: Schalke 04 are favoured (47% win probability vs 22% for Dynamo Dresden, 31% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 04?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Schalke 04 (15.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.1.
How does Bawler predict Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 04?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Dynamo Dresden 22%, the draw 31% and Schalke 04 47%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 04?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 40% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Dynamo Dresden expecting 0.80 goals and Schalke 04 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model expects 2.1 goals in total. It leans towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is only 35%.