Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Aymen Sliti and Nökkvi Thorisson both getting shots away.
Excelsior v Telstar prediction
There is little between the sides in this Eredivisie game. Excelsior edge it at 39%, Telstar are 37% and a draw is 25%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Excelsior 2–1 Telstar, the most likely Excelsior win (8%). Excelsior are expected to score 1.6 goals and Telstar 1.6, 3.2 between them. Both teams scoring is 64% and three or more goals is 62%.
Nökkvi Thorisson is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.1 shots and 1.2 on target for Telstar, if they start. For cards, Dylan Mertens (Telstar) has been booked once every 3 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. Excelsior come in with one win, no draws and five defeats in their last six. Telstar have one win, two draws and three defeats over the same run.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Excelsior have won two, Telstar one, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Excelsior 2–2 Telstar, in Jan 2026. On shots, our forecast is 16.2 for Excelsior and 13.7 for Telstar, with 5.5 and 5.0 on target, and corners at 5.6 to 4.3. Bawler's pick combines Both Teams to Score, Over 24.5 Total Shots, Aymen Sliti 1+ Shot and Nökkvi Thorisson 1+ Shot. We make the chance of all four coming in 53%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.88).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Excelsior · last 6
Telstar · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Excelsior or draw is 63% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Excelsior vs Telstar?
Bawler's model rates this match: Excelsior are favoured (39% win probability vs 37% for Telstar, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Telstar?
Bawler's predicted score is Excelsior 2-1 Telstar: the most likely score if Excelsior win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.3%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Excelsior vs Telstar?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Excelsior 39%, the draw 25% and Telstar 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Telstar?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on Excelsior expecting 1.62 goals and Telstar 1.57.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Excelsior vs Telstar?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.
When are the Excelsior v Telstar line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Excelsior v Telstar?
Both Teams to Score (64%), Over 24.5 Total Shots (81%), Aymen Sliti 1+ Shot (89%), Nökkvi Thorisson 1+ Shot (92%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 53% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.88). 18+, please gamble responsibly.