Match prediction·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Saturday 15 Aug, 18:00 UTC

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
36.8% home29.9% draw33.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
ExcelsiorstepPSV Eindhoven
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Excelsior average 4.2 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches). PSV average 6.1 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
PSV Eindhoven to win
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Excelsior fixtures & form →PSV Eindhoven fixtures & form →

Excelsior vs PSV — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Excelsior and PSV — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Excelsior 37% · draw 30% · PSV 33%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Excelsior predictions & form →PSV predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.