What we expect
In plain English
Iceland should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Estonia, and Estonia have not beaten them in their last four meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Iceland or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Estonia vs Iceland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Iceland are favoured (55% win probability vs 24% for Estonia, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Iceland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Estonia 1-2 Iceland (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.53.
How does Bawler predict Estonia vs Iceland?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Estonia 24%, the draw 22% and Iceland 55%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Estonia vs Iceland?
BTTS: Yes (66% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.38 and away expected goals 2.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Estonia vs Iceland?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.53. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).