How it finished
Lincoln City beat Derby County 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lincoln City 24%. It forecast 2.4 goals and the match produced 3. Derby County had 8 shots (4 on target) to Lincoln City's 14 (4), with 71% of the ball against 29%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Derby County vs Lincoln City?
Lincoln City beat Derby County 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lincoln City 24%. It forecast 2.4 goals and the match produced 3. Derby County had 8 shots (4 on target) to Lincoln City's 14 (4), with 71% of the ball against 29%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Derby County vs Lincoln City?
Derby County 1–2 Lincoln City, played on 08 Aug 2026 in the England: EFL Cup. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 43%, the draw 33% and Lincoln City 24%.
What were the stats in Derby County vs Lincoln City?
Full-time: Possession 71%–29%, Expected goals (xG) 0.4–1.3, Shots 8–14, Shots on target 4–4, Shots inside box 3–10, Big chances 0–2, Corners 3–6, Saves 2–2, Fouls 12–12, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Derby County vs Lincoln City?
Yes — both Derby County and Lincoln City scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 47% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Derby County vs Lincoln City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Derby County 43%, it finished Lincoln City (24% called); Total goals — we said 2.4, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 47%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 65%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said BTTS No 52%, it finished Missed.