Derby County vs 
Lincoln City
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 65% probability because Derby's 1.40 xG significantly outpaces Lincoln's 0.99, creating enough scoring volume to clear the line despite a modest 2.39 total xG.
Derby CountystepLincoln CityDerby average 5.3 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Derby vs Lincoln City — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Derby and Lincoln City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Derby 43% · draw 33% · Lincoln City 24%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Derby County 1–2 Lincoln CityModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.