What we expect
In plain English
Colorado Rapids are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Colorado Rapids or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Colorado Rapids are favoured (45% win probability vs 30% for Minnesota United FC, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Colorado Rapids 1-1 Minnesota United FC (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.15.
How does Bawler predict Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Colorado Rapids 45%, the draw 25% and Minnesota United FC 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC?
BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.75 and away expected goals 1.40.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.15. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).