Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Celta Vigo v Villarreal prediction
There is little between the sides in this LaLiga game. Villarreal edge it at 37%, Celta Vigo are 35% and a draw is 28%. Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 0–1 Villarreal: the most likely score if Villarreal win, at 9%. Celta Vigo are expected to score 1.3 goals and Villarreal 1.3, 2.6 between them. Both teams scoring is 53% and three or more goals comes in at 49%.
Pablo Durán is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.6 shots and 1.1 on target for Celta Vigo, if they start. For cards, Juan Foyth (Villarreal) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Celta Vigo have two wins, two draws and two defeats, while Villarreal have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Celta Vigo drew their most recent match and Villarreal won theirs.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Celta Vigo and Villarreal have two wins each, with one draw. When they last met, it finished Villarreal 2–1 Celta Vigo, in Apr 2026. On shots, our forecast is 13.0 for Celta Vigo and 13.3 for Villarreal, with 4.6 and 4.2 on target, and corners at 4.8 to 4.2. Bawler's pick for this game is Over 21.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 58% chance, which makes the fair price 8/11 (1.73).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Celta Vigo · last 6
Villarreal · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Villarreal or draw is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Bawler's model rates this match: Villarreal are favoured (37% win probability vs 35% for Celta Vigo, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Bawler's predicted score is Celta Vigo 0-1 Villarreal: the most likely score if Villarreal win, which is the likeliest result (37%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Celta Vigo 35%, the draw 28% and Villarreal 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Celta Vigo expecting 1.30 goals and Villarreal 1.33.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 49%.
When are the Celta Vigo v Villarreal line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Celta Vigo v Villarreal?
Over 21.5 Total Shots (79%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (76%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (85%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 58% chance, a fair price of 8/11 (1.73). 18+, please gamble responsibly.