Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Slavia Prague v Villarreal prediction
Villarreal are narrow favourites on our numbers, at 39%. Slavia Prague are 36%, and the draw 25%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Slavia Prague 1–2 Villarreal, the most likely Villarreal win (8%). Our expected goals are 1.6 for Slavia Prague and 1.7 for Villarreal, 3.3 in all. Both teams scoring is 65% and three or more goals is 63%.
Nicolas Pépé is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.0 shots and 0.7 on target for Villarreal, if they start. For cards, Juan Foyth (Villarreal) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Slavia Prague have three wins, two draws and one defeat, while Villarreal have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Both won their most recent match.
Of their last two meetings on our records, Slavia Prague have won none, Villarreal one, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Slavia Prague 0–2 Villarreal, in Nov 2017. On shots, our forecast is 16.0 for Slavia Prague and 12.9 for Villarreal, with 4.3 and 3.9 on target, and corners at 5.7 to 3.9. So we expect Slavia Prague to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Over 24.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. The chance all three land is 59% on our numbers, so the fair price is 4/6, or 1.69.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Slavia Prague · last 6
Villarreal · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Villarreal or draw is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Slavia Prague vs Villarreal?
Bawler's model rates this match: Villarreal are favoured (39% win probability vs 36% for Slavia Prague, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Slavia Prague vs Villarreal?
Bawler's predicted score is Slavia Prague 1-2 Villarreal: the most likely score if Villarreal win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.3%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Slavia Prague vs Villarreal?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Slavia Prague 36%, the draw 25% and Villarreal 39%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Slavia Prague vs Villarreal?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 65% chance. That is based on Slavia Prague expecting 1.59 goals and Villarreal 1.66.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Slavia Prague vs Villarreal?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.
When are the Slavia Prague v Villarreal line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Slavia Prague v Villarreal?
Over 24.5 Total Shots (76%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (81%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (81%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 59% chance, a fair price of 4/6 (1.69). 18+, please gamble responsibly.