Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBarcelona on top: Raphinha to test the keeper, and Santiago Mouriño kept busy stopping them.
Barcelona v Villarreal prediction
Our model makes Barcelona clear favourites for this LaLiga game, with a 73% chance of winning. Villarreal are given 11%, and the draw 16%. Our predicted score is Barcelona 2–1 Villarreal, at 9%. Barcelona are expected to score 2.8 goals and Villarreal 1.0, 3.8 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (60%) and three or more goals is 73%.
In their last six games Barcelona have four wins, no draws and two defeats, while Villarreal have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Barcelona won their most recent match and Villarreal lost theirs. We expect Barcelona to have 21.4 shots (6.4 on target) and Villarreal 7.6 (2.9 on target), and corners at 7.7 to 3.0. That points to Barcelona doing more of the attacking.
Marc Bernal of Barcelona is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26. Of their last five meetings on our records, Barcelona have won three, Villarreal two. The last meeting ended Barcelona 4–1 Villarreal, in Feb 2026. Bawler's pick combines Barcelona or Draw, Santiago Mouriño 1+ Foul Committed and Raphinha 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 52%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Barcelona · last 6
Villarreal · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Barcelona to win is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Bawler's model rates this match: Barcelona are favoured (73% win probability vs 11% for Villarreal, 16% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Bawler's predicted score is Barcelona 2-1 Villarreal: the most likely score if Barcelona win, which is the likeliest result (73%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.7%. Expected total goals: 3.8.
How does Bawler predict Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Barcelona 73%, the draw 16% and Villarreal 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Barcelona expecting 2.79 goals and Villarreal 1.03.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Bawler's model expects 3.8 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 73%.
When are the Barcelona v Villarreal line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Barcelona v Villarreal?
Barcelona or Draw (89%), Santiago Mouriño 1+ Foul Committed (76%), Raphinha 1+ Shot on Target (69%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93). 18+, please gamble responsibly.