Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAFC Bournemouth on top, and Evanilson getting plenty of shots away.
Celta Vigo v AFC Bournemouth prediction
AFC Bournemouth are favourites on our numbers: 54% to win, against 21% for Celta Vigo and 25% for a draw. Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 0–1 AFC Bournemouth, the likeliest AFC Bournemouth win score (11%). We expect 2.8 goals in total: 1.0 for Celta Vigo and 1.8 for AFC Bournemouth. Both sides are more likely than not to score (53%) and three or more goals is 53%.
On form, Celta Vigo have two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six games, and AFC Bournemouth have six wins, no draws and no defeats. Evanilson (AFC Bournemouth) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.5 shots if they start. Pablo Durán (Celta Vigo) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. David Brooks of AFC Bournemouth is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26.
We expect Celta Vigo to have 11.1 shots (4.5 on target) and AFC Bournemouth 17.4 (4.3 on target), and corners at 4.2 to 5.6. That points to AFC Bournemouth doing more of the attacking. For Bawler's pick we have gone with AFC Bournemouth or Draw, AFC Bournemouth Over 13.5 Shots and Evanilson 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 44% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/4, or 2.27.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Celta Vigo · last 6
AFC Bournemouth · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AFC Bournemouth or draw is 79% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Celta Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
Bawler's model rates this match: AFC Bournemouth are favoured (54% win probability vs 21% for Celta Vigo, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
Bawler's predicted score is Celta Vigo 0-1 AFC Bournemouth: the most likely score if AFC Bournemouth win, which is the likeliest result (54%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.6%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Celta Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Celta Vigo 21%, the draw 25% and AFC Bournemouth 54%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Celta Vigo expecting 1.03 goals and AFC Bournemouth 1.78.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Celta Vigo vs AFC Bournemouth?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.
When are the Celta Vigo v AFC Bournemouth line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Celta Vigo v AFC Bournemouth?
AFC Bournemouth or Draw (79%), AFC Bournemouth Over 13.5 Shots (76%), Evanilson 2+ Shots (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 44% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.27). 18+, please gamble responsibly.