Match prediction·England: Premier League·Saturday 22 Aug, 16:30 UTC

Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
43.7% home26.4% draw29.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
BrentfordstepTottenham Hotspur
1.89Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.89Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.08

Brentford average 4.4 corners per game at home this season (19 competitive matches). Tottenham average 4.7 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 13 Aug 2026

BrentfordHome
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Gustavo Nunes — Hamstring injury sustained in the second half of the pre-season friendly against Gil Vicente.
    Expected return: Unverified
  • Fabio Carvalho — Recovering from a season-ending ACL injury sustained in 2025/26. Has returned to elements of first-team training at the Portugal pre-season camp and is building sharpness…
    Expected return: Working towards availability for the start of 2026/27; not confirmed fit
  • Antoni Milambo — Recovering from an ACL injury, rehabilitating alongside Carvalho at the Portugal camp; back in limited first-team training.
    Expected return: Working towards availability for the start of 2026/27; not confirmed fit
Latest updates
  • 10 Aug · Line-up
    Senior XI at Rennes: Sangare, Janelt and Jensen in midfield; Hickey at right-back
    Brentford split the squad across two fixtures at Rennes on 8 August. The Roazhon Park XI was Kelleher; Hickey, Collins, Pinnock, Lewis-Potter; Janelt, Jensen, Sangare; Ouattara, Thiago…
  • 10 Aug · Return
    Fabio Carvalho makes first appearance in nine months after ACL injury
    Carvalho came on around the hour mark at Roazhon Park for his first first-team minutes since his season-ending ACL injury, hitting the inside of the post late on. Reports noted little sign…
SpursAway
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Xavi Simons — Ruptured anterior cruciate ligament, right knee, sustained 25 April 2026 v Wolves; surgery early May. Ruled out at least seven months
    Expected return: reports differ — 'at least seven months' implies approximately December 2026; Transfermarkt lists 20 February…
  • Wilson Odobert — Cruciate ligament tear
    Expected return: 28 November 2026 (Transfermarkt)
  • Dejan Kulusevski — Knee cartilage; out 13+ months and missed the ENTIRE 2025/26 season. Sweden's team doctor said the injury is 'in a tricky spot' and 'is not recovering quickly enough due…
    Expected return: No timeline given
  • Mohammed Kudus — Quadriceps/thigh tendon injury sustained January 2026 and aggravated in April (one source describes it as a hamstring); missed the second half of 2025/26
    Expected return: Imminent - De Zerbi, 26 July 2026: 'Kudus is very close, I think.
  • Cristian Romero — Muscular leg problem sustained for Argentina in the 2026 World Cup final v Spain on 19 July, forced off before the second hydration break.
    Expected return: No timeline given
+9 more absences reported
Latest updates
  • 1 Aug · Return
    Kulusevski's return from his knee injury being carefully managed
    De Zerbi is managing his comeback from the season-long knee problem; still flagged as injured with no fixed return.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 13 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

BrentfordHome4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKCaoimhin Kelleher
Defence
RBMichael KayodeCBNathan CollinsCBKristoffer AjerLBRico Henry
Midfield
CMVitaly JaneltCMYehor YarmoliukAMMikkel Damsgaard
Attack
RWDango OuattaraLWKevin SchadeSTIgor Thiago
Selection doubts
  • This XI is extrapolated from Brentford's settled 2025/26 shape rather than a published 2026/27 predicted lineup - Andrews himself described the summer as 'minimal change', which supports continuity…
  • Left wing: Kevin Schade vs new £15m signing Jaidon Anthony, who scored in the Wimbledon friendly.
SpursAway4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKAntonin Kinsky
Defence
RBPedro PorroCBJan Paul van HeckeCBMicky van de VenLBAndy Robertson
Midfield
CMSandro TonaliCMMateus FernandesAMJames Maddison
Attack
RWMohammed KudusLWMathys TelSTDominic Solanke
Selection doubts
  • GOALKEEPER (the most live battle in the squad): Antonin Kinsky started the survival-clinching final day of 2025/26, signed a new deal to 2032 on 30 June, and Tribal Football, Italpress and Football…
  • CENTRE-BACK: Jan Paul van Hecke (£52m) and Micky van de Ven are the likeliest pair, but Marcos Senesi (free) is on extended post-World Cup leave, captain Cristian Romero picked up a muscular injury…

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

ThiagoThiagoBRE · FWD · £8.0m3.9 pts
O.DangoO.DangoBRE · MID · £6.5m3.6 pts
CollinsCollinsBRE · DEF · £5.5m3.6 pts
All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Brentford fixtures & form →Tottenham Hotspur fixtures & form →

Brentford vs Tottenham — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Brentford and Tottenham — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Brentford 44% · draw 26% · Tottenham 30%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Brentford predictions & form →Tottenham predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.