Bawler's model rates this match: Paraguay are favoured (71% win probability vs 9% for Bolivia, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bolivia 0-1 Paraguay (15.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.54.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bolivia 9%, the draw 21% and Paraguay 71%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: No (63% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.56 and away expected goals 1.98.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.54. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).