What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
What we said the chances were
First half — what we expected
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Bolivia vs Gambia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Gambia are favoured (61% win probability vs 17% for Bolivia, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Bolivia vs Gambia?
Bawler's predicted score is Bolivia 1-2 Gambia: the most likely score if Gambia win, which is the likeliest result (61%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Bolivia vs Gambia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Bolivia 17%, the draw 21% and Gambia 61%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bolivia vs Gambia?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Bolivia expecting 1.07 goals and Gambia 2.13.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bolivia vs Gambia?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.