What we expect
In plain English
Gambia should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Bolivia. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Gambia or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Bolivia vs Gambia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Gambia are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for Bolivia, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Bolivia vs Gambia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bolivia 1-1 Gambia (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.97.
How does Bawler predict Bolivia vs Gambia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bolivia 24%, the draw 24% and Gambia 52%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bolivia vs Gambia?
BTTS: Yes (57% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.16 and away expected goals 1.81.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bolivia vs Gambia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.97. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).