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Peru vs Bolivia prediction — International friendlies · Fri 13 Nov · 20:00 UK

International friendlies · Fri 13 Nov · 20:00 UK
68Peru win21Draw11Bolivia win
Peru to win has not moved in a day — steady at 68%
The call
68%
Peru to win
Calls on the result published at 60–70% have landed 69% of the time
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Peru are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Bolivia. The model sees around three goals in it.

The chances

Peru to score86%
2 or more goals74%
3 goals or fewer73%
Goal before half-time69%
3 or more goals49%
Both teams score41%

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

PeruPeruBoliviaBolivia
2.0Goals0.6
usually 0.8usually 0.5
10.1Shots9.8
usually 7.0usually 8.5
3.7On target2.9
usually 2.2usually 2.8
5.0Corners4.5
usually 3.8usually 5.0
PeruPeruBoliviaBolivia
0.9Goals0.3
4.6Shots4.5
usually 3.5usually 3.8
1.7On target1.3
usually 0.8usually 1.3
2.3Corners2.1
usually 2.3usually 2.2
PeruPeruBoliviaBolivia
1.1Goals0.4
5.5Shots5.4
2.0On target1.6
2.6Corners2.4

Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.

What would change the call

Peru to win is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Peru lead 1–0 at half-time87%
Bolivia lead 1–0 at half-time20%
Goalless at half-time51%

Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Peru · last 6

Lv Colombia0–210/06
Lat Canada0–24 shots
Dv Mexico1–15 shots
Lv USA1–45 shots
Lv Spain1–310 shots
Wv Haiti2–110 shots

Bolivia · last 6

Lat Argentina0–43 shots
Lv Paraguay0–209/27
Lv Algeria0–406/11
Lv Scotland0–47 shots
Lv Iraq1–215 shots
Wv Suriname2–118 shots

First half — what we expect

Peru
58%
to score before half-time
Bolivia
25%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

PeruPeruBoliviaBolivia
61%4+ shots60%
32%6+ shots31%
76%1+ shots on target68%
24%3+ shots on target16%
86%1+ corners83%
40%3+ corners34%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

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Common questions

Who will win Peru vs Bolivia?

Bawler's model rates this match: Peru are favoured (68% win probability vs 11% for Bolivia, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Peru vs Bolivia?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Peru 1-0 Bolivia (14.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.6.

How does Bawler predict Peru vs Bolivia?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Peru 68%, the draw 21% and Bolivia 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Peru vs Bolivia?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 41% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Peru expecting 1.97 goals and Bolivia 0.65.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Peru vs Bolivia?

Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 49%.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Peru form →Bolivia form →