FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Bolivia 0–2 ParaguayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Bolivia
0–2
Paraguay win
Paraguay
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Bolivia at 9%, draw at 20%, Paraguay at 71%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Paraguay.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Bolivia win
9%
Draw
20%
Paraguay win
71%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.57 – 1.99
Total 2.55
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Paraguay's away win is the model's high-confidence call, backed by a dominant 1.37 xG advantage and 69% win probability over a Bolivia side managing just 0.58 expected goals."

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