FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Argentina 4–0 BoliviaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Argentina
4–0
Argentina win
Bolivia
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Argentina at 96%, draw at 4%, Bolivia at 0%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Argentina.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Argentina win
96%
Actual ✓
Draw
4%
Bolivia win
0%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
3.83 – 0.18
Total 4.02
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (-0.0 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 96%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Argentina's dominance at home is overwhelming: a 3.50 expected-goal advantage and 95% win probability make the Home Win the clear forecast, anchored by Messi's 22% of team attacking output."

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