Match prediction·PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal·Sunday 09 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Benfica vs Académico de Viseu

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
58.6% home26.6% draw14.7% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
BenficastepAcadémico de Viseu
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Benfica average 7.1 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Benfica or draw
77%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Benfica vs Académico de Viseu — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Benfica and Académico de Viseu — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Benfica 59% · draw 27% · Académico de Viseu 15%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Benfica 22 Académico de Viseu
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.