What we expect
In plain English
Brazil should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Australia, and Australia have not beaten them in their last three meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Brazil or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Australia vs Brazil?
Bawler's model rates this match: Brazil are favoured (53% win probability vs 21% for Australia, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Australia vs Brazil?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Australia 1-1 Brazil (12.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.57.
How does Bawler predict Australia vs Brazil?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Australia 21%, the draw 26% and Brazil 53%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Australia vs Brazil?
BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.94 and away expected goals 1.63.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Australia vs Brazil?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.57. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).