FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 03 October 2026

India 0–4 BrazilMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

India
0–4
Brazil win
Brazil

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Brazil to win at 94%. Bawler had India at 1%, the draw at 5% and Brazil at 94%. The match finished 0–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

India win
1%
Draw
5%
Brazil win
94%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.3 – 3.6
Total 3.9
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Brazil to win
Pre-match: 94%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Brazil's away win is the model's overwhelming call at 94% probability, powered by a 3.24 xG advantage that reflects their dominant attacking setup led by Vinícius Jr."

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