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FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 25 September 2026

Australia 1–1 BrazilMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 25 September 2026

Australia
1–1
Draw
Brazil
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Australia at 21%, draw at 26%, Brazil at 53%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Brazil to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Australia win
21%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Brazil win
53%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.92 – 1.63
Total 2.55
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Brazil's quality at the wing (Vinícius Jr at 22% of team xG) and overall 0.68 expected-goals advantage make X2 the high-confidence forecast at 79%, as the model expects the visitors to either win or draw in this friendly."

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