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FT · World: International Friendly · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Australia 2–4 BrazilMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Australia
2–4
Brazil win
Brazil
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Australia at 23%, draw at 27%, Brazil at 51%. The match ended 2-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Brazil.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Australia win
23%
Draw
27%
Brazil win
51%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.99 – 1.59
Total 2.58
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.4 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Brazil's superior shot quality—commanding 1.57 xG to Australia's 0.96—underpins the X2 forecast (78% confidence), with Vinícius Jr and Rodrygo accounting for 38% of the visitors' attacking threat."

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