Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAS Roma on top: Donyell Malen to test the keeper, and Leonardo Colombo kept busy stopping them.
AS Roma v Monza prediction
Our model gives AS Roma a 66% chance of winning this Serie A game. A Monza win is 15% and a draw 19%. If you want one score, our predicted score is AS Roma 2–1 Monza, at 10%. Our expected goals are 2.4 for AS Roma and 1.0 for Monza, 3.4 in all. Both teams scoring is 59% and three or more goals is 66%.
Donyell Malen is the player we expect to shoot most: 4.7 shots and 1.7 on target for AS Roma, if they start. For cards, Lorenzo Lucchesi (Monza) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. AS Roma come in with four wins, one draw and one defeat in their last six. Monza have one win, no draws and five defeats over the same run.
On shots, our forecast is 18.9 for AS Roma and 9.2 for Monza, with 6.4 and 3.3 on target, and corners at 6.6 to 2.9. So we expect AS Roma to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with AS Roma or Draw, Leonardo Colombo 1+ Foul Committed and Donyell Malen 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 52% on our numbers, so the fair price is 10/11, or 1.91.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
AS Roma · last 6
Monza · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AS Roma to win is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win AS Roma vs Monza?
Bawler's model rates this match: AS Roma are favoured (66% win probability vs 15% for Monza, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Monza?
Bawler's predicted score is AS Roma 2-1 Monza: the most likely score if AS Roma win, which is the likeliest result (66%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.6%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict AS Roma vs Monza?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives AS Roma 66%, the draw 19% and Monza 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Monza?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on AS Roma expecting 2.37 goals and Monza 1.04.
Over or under 2.5 goals in AS Roma vs Monza?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.
When are the AS Roma v Monza line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for AS Roma v Monza?
AS Roma or Draw (85%), Leonardo Colombo 1+ Foul Committed (72%), Donyell Malen 1+ Shot on Target (77%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.91). 18+, please gamble responsibly.