FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 08 November 2026
Monza 0–1 AtalantaMatch recap · Sunday, 08 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickLost
Both Teams to Score✗
Over 25.5 Total Shots✓
Gustavo Varela 1+ Shot✓
Nikola Krstović 1+ Shot✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Monza win
35%
Draw
25%
Atalanta win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.7
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.