Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelArsenal on top, and Kai Havertz getting plenty of shots away.
Arsenal v Manchester City prediction
Arsenal are favourites on our numbers: 51% to win, against 23% for Manchester City and 26% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Arsenal 1–0 Manchester City, the most likely Arsenal win (11%). Arsenal are expected to score 1.6 goals and Manchester City 1.0, 2.7 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (52%) and three or more goals is 50%.
We expect Arsenal to have 15.4 shots (5.4 on target) and Manchester City 10.5 (3.2 on target), and corners at 5.6 to 3.8. That points to Arsenal doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Arsenal and Manchester City have two wins each, with one draw. The last meeting ended Arsenal 3–0 Manchester City, in Aug 2026.
On form, Arsenal have four wins, two draws and no defeats from their last six games, and Manchester City have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Of the players, Erling Haaland (Manchester City) tops both our lists, with 2.2 shots and 1.3 on target expected if they start. Myles Lewis-Skelly of Arsenal is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2025/26. Bawler's pick for this game is Arsenal or Draw, Arsenal Over 11.5 Shots and Kai Havertz 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 39% chance, which makes the fair price 6/4 (2.54).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Arsenal · last 6
Manchester City · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Arsenal or draw is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Arsenal are favoured (51% win probability vs 23% for Manchester City, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Bawler's predicted score is Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City: the most likely score if Arsenal win, which is the likeliest result (51%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.3%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Arsenal 51%, the draw 26% and Manchester City 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Arsenal expecting 1.63 goals and Manchester City 1.03.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.
When are the Arsenal v Manchester City line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Arsenal v Manchester City?
Arsenal or Draw (77%), Arsenal Over 11.5 Shots (78%), Kai Havertz 2+ Shots (60%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 39% chance, a fair price of 6/4 (2.54). 18+, please gamble responsibly.