FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 07 November 2026
Nottingham Forest 3–1 Manchester CityMatch recap · Saturday, 07 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickLost
Manchester City or Draw✗
Manchester City Over 11.5 Shots✓
Erling Haaland 1+ Shot on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Nottingham Forest win
28%
Result
Draw
26%
Manchester City win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.