FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 07 November 2026
Arsenal 1–0 Hull CityMatch recap · Saturday, 07 November 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Arsenal win
85%
Result
Draw
11%
Hull City win
4%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.8 – 0.5
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.