Match prediction·England: Premier League·Friday 21 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Arsenal vs Coventry City

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
76.0% home15.9% draw8.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
ArsenalstepCoventry City
2.13Base xG · rolling 26-match0.87
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.13Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.87

Arsenal average 6.1 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Coventry average 4.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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6
0
5
4
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11
9
4
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11
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8
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4
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6
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home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 13 Aug 2026

ArsenalHome
Unavailable / doubtful
  • William Saliba — Back injury sustained on France duty at the 2026 World Cup (substituted in first half of the semi-final defeat to Spain).
    Expected return: No date given by club; widely reported to miss the opening weeks of the season, i.e. unavailable for GW1 on 21…
  • Jurrien Timber — Groin injury carried over from the end of 2025/26; missed the World Cup. Left the Spain pre-season camp to return to London, but sources stress this was a planned…
    Expected return: Targeting fitness for the start of the Premier League season; unconfirmed
Latest updates
  • 13 Aug · Manager
    Arteta says Arsenal still want more signings after Guimarães bow
    Speaking after the Como friendly on 12 Aug, Arteta said: 'There is more that we want to do because every time we have an opportunity to improve the squad and bring more quality and depth to…
  • 13 Aug · Injury
    Arteta: Timber 'still weeks away', out of Community Shield and Coventry opener
    Developing the earlier 'travelled to Girona but short' line, Arteta said on the record: 'He's on the pitch and doing quite a lot right now but is still weeks away - I cannot tell you how…
Coventry CityAway
No absences reported for Coventry City in the latest round of club news.
Latest updates
  • 13 Aug · Signing
    Coventry re-sign Gustavo Hamer from Sheffield United for around £6m
    Coventry officially confirmed Hamer's return on 11 August on a long-term contract, fee reported at roughly £6m (c.€7m) after two earlier bids were rejected.
  • 13 Aug · Manager
    Lampard backs Haji Wright as his No.9 for the Premier League amid West Ham links
    In an interview published 12 August, Frank Lampard said of Wright: "I felt quite quickly that he's a No. 9 and he prefers to be in that position too... with his speed, size and ability to…

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 13 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

ArsenalHome4-3-3
Goalkeeper
GKDavid Raya
Defence
RBBen WhiteCBCristhian MosqueraCBGabriel MagalhaesLBRiccardo Calafiori
Midfield
CMDeclan RiceCMMartin ZubimendiCMMartin Odegaard
Attack
RWBukayo SakaSTViktor GyokeresLWGabriel Martinelli
Selection doubts
  • Centre-back alongside Gabriel: Cristhian Mosquera vs Piero Hincapie while William Saliba is out.
  • Right-back: Ben White vs Jurrien Timber, dependent on Timber's groin recovery.
Coventry CityAway4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKOliver Dovin
Defence
RBMilan van EwijkCBBobby ThomasCBAurele AmendaLBJay Dasilva
Midfield
CMFrank OnyekaCMMatt Grimes (captain)AMJack Rudoni
Attack
RWLoum TchaounaLWTatsuhiro Sakamoto or Ephron Mason-ClarkSTHaji Wright
Selection doubts
  • LOW CONFIDENCE XI - no beat reporter has published a predicted lineup, and both friendlies so far were rotation-heavy (Coventry fielded two different outfield sides vs AFC Wimbledon)
  • Left wing: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto vs Ephron Mason-Clark, with the £20m Tchaouna's arrival squeezing the wide areas

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

GabrielGabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m5.1 pts
RayaRayaARS · GKP · £6.0m3.8 pts
RiceRiceARS · MID · £7.5m3.6 pts
All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Arsenal fixtures & form →Coventry City fixtures & form →

Arsenal vs Coventry — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Arsenal and Coventry — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Arsenal 76% · draw 16% · Coventry 8%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Arsenal predictions & form →Coventry predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.