FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Plymouth Argyle 2–4 Coventry CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Plymouth Argyle
2–4
Coventry City win
Coventry City

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Coventry City or draw at 73%. Bawler had Plymouth Argyle at 27%, the draw at 25% and Coventry City at 48%. The match finished 2–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

Plymouth Argyle win
27%
Draw
25%
Coventry City win
48%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.9
From the match itself

The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Coventry City or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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