What we expect
In plain English
Alanyaspor should get at least a draw here. They have won four of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Erzurum BB. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Alanyaspor or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?
Bawler's model rates this match: Alanyaspor are favoured (50% win probability vs 22% for Erzurum BB, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Alanyaspor 1-0 Erzurum BB (13.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.39.
How does Bawler predict Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Alanyaspor 50%, the draw 28% and Erzurum BB 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?
BTTS: No (54% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.49 and away expected goals 0.90.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.39. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).