FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Friday, 11 September 2026
Besiktas 3–0 Erzurum BBMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Besiktas at 65%, draw at 20%, Erzurum BB at 15%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Besiktas.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
BB win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.20 – 0.97
Total 3.17
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Besiktas' home win forecast rests on a commanding 1.22 expected-goals advantage, translating to a 65% probability of three points against a visitor managing just 0.97 xG."