FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Çorum FK 1–2 AlanyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Çorum FK at 54%, draw at 24%, Alanyaspor at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Çorum FK to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FK win
54%
Draw
24%
Alanyaspor win
21%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.84 – 1.08
Total 2.92
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Çorum's 0.36 expected-goals edge and 45% win probability at home point to Over 1.5 Goals as the high-confidence forecast, with a combined 2.60 xG total suggesting a two-goal threshold is breached in seven of ten simulations."