FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Alanyaspor 2–2 GoztepeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Alanyaspor at 35%, draw at 28%, Goztepe at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Goztepe to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alanyaspor win
35%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Goztepe win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.34
Total 2.62
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% because both sides combine for 2.62 expected goals with a negligible 0.06 xG gap, suggesting an open contest unlikely to stay scoreless."