FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 24 October 2026

Gaziantep FK 1–3 Erzurum BBMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026

Gaziantep FK
1–3
Erzurum BB win
Erzurum BB

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Gaziantep FK or draw at 73%. Bawler had Gaziantep FK at 44%, the draw at 29% and Erzurum BB at 27%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Gaziantep FK win
44%
Draw
29%
Erzurum BB win
27%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.0
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.6 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Gaziantep FK or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Gaziantep's 0.35 expected-goal advantage and 44% win probability make Gaziantep FK or draw the model's high-confidence call at 73%, suggesting the hosts avoid defeat despite modest attacking output across both sides."

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